Ten days into the major Tiger split, Colonel Karuna on Monday night convened a special meeting at his new base Meenaham in Karadiyanaru to map out plans for warding off an attack on the eastern breakaway group.

Karuna Amman summoned his divisional heads and discussed steps to be taken and the threat posed from Trincomalee where the area leaders are known for their divided loyalties to the Wanni and the East.

The discussion was attended by almost all Karuna's regiment leaders including his brother Regi. By the time the meeting took place the Karuna loyalists had further strengthened the security in areas under his control. Among the latest measures is the upgrading of boat landing points in Palchanei and Challativu, both north of Pannichankerni and south of Verugal as Sea Tiger bases.

With these two, the sea bases under Karuna's command have increased up to three, the first being the one opened in Vakarai following the ceasefire. All three Sea Tiger bases are under Jeyam, a staunch loyalist of Karuna.

Karuna’s men have advised fishermen to refrain from deep-sea fishing as there was a possibility that Wanni cadres could get into the boats mid-sea and land with the fishermen in the East coast.

In addition the Eastern Sea Tigers are on eternal vigil with boat patrols done round the clock. While Wanni loyalist Sornam continues to hang around in the Mawadichai area with nearly 150 cadres, to meet the threat further reinforcements were sent by Karuna over the week to strengthen the Vakarai land entry points.

The Madanan regiment with nearly 300 cadres under female regiment leader Savitri, the Vishalan 2 regiment with 100 cadres under its commander Sampanthan and Vinodan regiment led by Ahaliyan with its 75 cadres are among them.

In addition there are 350 standby cadres in surrounding areas. These are assisted by Sniper and Reconnoiter (Recce) units numbering about 300, mainly covering the Vakarai area, generally referred to as 46. These two units are under senior leader Thamban Master.

While Karuna has virtually blocked all land and sea entry points, Sornam in the meantime continues to send radio messages requesting the de facto Eastern commander to allow them to enter his area for peace negotiations. There has been no positive response from Karuna who is alive to the ulterior motives of his enemies.

Meanwhile, it is learnt that Thamilselvan's request to Karuna not to trigger off a blood bath in the East has been sneered at. Karuna's brother Regi had informed the former about the request by the LTTE political Wing Chief to avoid a bloodbath. To this Karuna had responded asking him to inquire from Thamilselavan whether Wanni had sent the intelligence and sniper units towards Batticaloa with anaesthesia so that there would be no blood bath.

Despite the apparent stalemate, the tension is felt by people in the area and the civilians fear that killing of even a single Eastern senior may lead to war between the Eastern and Northern cadres.

"If there is a confrontation between the two factions, the Eastern cadres are definitely at a strong and advantageous position," says former Army Commander, General Gerry De Silva, who was the Eastern Commander of the Sri Lanka Army from 1990-1992.

General de Silva reminds us that the terrain is a key factor in deciding the outcome of a battle, adding that the Eastern cadres who know every nook and corner, every water hole will in no time outsmart the Northerners.

Citing the fate of the IPKF in its war against the LTTE to substantiate the point, the General said the knowledge of this reality most probably is one of the key pointers towards Velupillai Prabhakaran's hesitation to send an army to crush Karuna and his men.

The three jungle areas in the East - Thoppigala, a second joining Vakarai, Thrikonamadu and Verugal and a third towards Ampara with Kanchikudichchiaru, Lahugala and Bakmitiyawa as borders, generally used by Karuna's men throughout, give them an added lead in the event of a confrontation with the Northern cadres, he said.

The security of the civilians, especially in the uncleared areas in the East, in the event of heavy fighting between the two factions, is an issue civil society has expressed concern about.

"The immediate concern should be the security of the civilians, especially in the LTTE controlled areas, as they will be the victims if there is direct confrontation between Wanni and Estern factions," says Rohan Edrisinha, head of the Legal Unit of the Centre for Policy Alternatives, whose expert opinion has been sought after during peace talks.

However, Edrisinha says dissent in any party, irrespective of the fact whether they are South based or North based, is a cause for celebration.

"It manifests the divergence of views. But one should make sure to use it for healthy constructive purposes," opined Edrisinha. While the protection of the civilians is deemed the biggest challenge at ground level, the recent developments, says Edrisinha, have also given rise to fears whether they would deter the Sinhala electorate from its quest for a negotiated settlement.

"Now that there is division among the Tamil representatives for peace negotiations, there appears to be signs that certain parties are tempted to exploit the situation. There will be long-term disastrous repercussions if the South gives in to this temptation and postpones peace negotiations," says Edrisinha.

That Karuna's defection is a reason for jubilation by the Sinhala electorate is no secret. However Tamil leaders, irrespective of their positions, feel that divisions and the hurling of abuse by the two factions will only serve to undermine the Tamil cause.

"The LTTE is not the sole representative of the Tamils. But they have been the key stake-holders in the struggle of the Tamil people in recent times. Washing dirty linen in public will not only diminish the clout of the LTTE but the voice of the Tamil people as well," says TULF Leader Veerasingham Anandasangaree, who himself has been critical of the LTTE.

He adds that certain divisions within politico-military organizations that would not surface in times of war, are bound to appear during relatively peaceful times and unless there is an immediate resolution to the internal warfare, there is a strong chance of a solution to the Tamil question being postponed again.

"A federal solution has already been agreed upon and the parties were on the threshold of discussing interim proposals as a transitional option," reminded Sangaree.

Agrees TULF strongman from Batticaloa Joseph Pararajasingham, "It is mandatory that the two factions get together in this crucial hour for the sake of the Tamil nation."

However Karuna's defection, according to a conflict analyst and participant at the Thimpu talks, Ketheshwaran Loganathan, was something unavoidable given the structure of the LTTE as a rebel organization.

"The structure of the LTTE is such that the pluralism and regional differences were hardly given its due place. The same could be applied to the Tamil nationalism issue as well," says Loganathan.

While the big issue of resolving the challenge thrown by Karuna - for regional autonomy within the LTTE - peacefully and democratically - remains a question, a third armed party to peace talks in the event of failure to resolve this by the Tiger leadership, poses a big challenge to the government and the Norwegian facilitators.

"There is no doubt that the divisions within a party to negotiations, confront the peace process with new challenges," says a key player in the UNF-sponsored peace process and former Economic Reforms Minister Milinda Moragoda.

He, however, said that although the recent developments are new to the peace process here, if one had a closer look at the peace processes around the world, one could see that such scenarios are quite common.

Among the beneficiaries of Karuna's defection, which has diluted the clout of the LTTE, is undoubtedly the EPDP, the key Tamil rival of the Tigers.

While subscribing to the view that the LTTE divisions have given a morale boost to the EPDP, former Secretary of the North-East Provincial Council and EPDP theoretician Dr. K. Vigneswaran however said that the theories of Pottu Amman's initial conspiracies against Karuna, without the knowledge of LTTE leader Prabhakaran, are something to be taken with a pinch of salt.

He feels that the Wanni attitude towards Karuna should be viewed in the light of the deaths of the likes of Kumarappan, Pulendran, Thileepan and Mahattaya.

"Whenever Prabhakaran felt that a senior was getting too big for his boots, he made it a point to trap him someway or the other. Insecurity has been a dominant characteristic of Velupillai Prabhakaran throughout his so-called liberation struggle", adds Dr. Vigneswaran.

Kumarappan and Pulendran, two of the emerging leaders of the LTTE who were fasting in Jaffna against the Indo-Lanka Accord were given cyanide capsules smuggled in by Mahattaya. The two committed suicide just before they were to be brought to Colombo.

Thileepan, says Dr. Vigneswaran, was singled out by Prabhakaran for the Tiger fast-unto-death campaign because the LTTE supremo was strongly feeling that Thileepan was becoming popular among the juniors.

He further says that during his last hours, Thileepan had begged from the LTTE cadres to give him water but was refused because Prabhakaran had given strict instructions not to do so.

Besides this, the fate of Mahattaya and Prabhakaran's attempts to keep the likes of upcoming leaders like Lawrence Thilakar and Yogi out of the main picture, further substantiate this theory, he said.

"Prabhakaran was fully aware of all the movements of Pottu Amman. Whatever that was done to make Karuna unpopular, to checkmate him and later kill him were all done by Pottu Amman with the full backing of the LTTE leader," he added.

Given the circumstances, Dr. Vigneswaran is of the opinion that it is imperative for any government that comes into power to recognize Karuna as a leader of a separate group and bargain and enter into a separate agreement with him for the East.

"The EPDP and other Tamil groups too should be part of the plenary round of talks and our support to any party would depend on this condition," says Dr. Vigneswaran who is contesting Trincomalee as the key rival of TULF strongman R. Sampanthan who heads the TNA's Tricomalee district team.