29/10/2004 - Daily Mirror
Armitage's South Asian swansong





US Deputy Secretary of State Richard Armitage is scheduled to make yet another visit to South Asia including Sri Lanka, most interestingly after the November 2 US Presidential polls.

Armitage has been seen as a "hands-on" top US diplomat mainly on South Asian affairs in the George Bush administration. Obviously this region became highly important to the US following the 9/11 and its post developments. It is still vulnerable with a non-ending conflict in Afghanistan in the context of terrorism.

But the reasons for planning a visit after the crucial polls are not clear. The outcome of the upcoming presidential polls is still not predictable, and most importantly even in the event of President Bush returning to power, it is not yet confirmed whether Armitage would still be holding to the portfolio. Therefore, some consider the move a 'farewell visit' by Armitage to his 'favourite region', which assisted him to boost his own image on a mega scale.

US Foreign Policy will not be a victim to any future 'regime change,' experts believe. Hence, South Asia will remain a highly vulnerable region for the super power, not only on the military but also on the economic front as well. The countries that Armitage is planning to visit on this tour indicate the importance attached to these places in the region - India, Pakistan, Afghanistan and Sri Lanka.

India, with its mammoth one billion-market is now reshaping itself to make the country, not only as a regional but also as a global leader. Realizing the importance and benefits of market economies and globalization - even at a comparatively late stage - India has now engaged in a process of revitalization of its strengths to gain its due position in the global scene.

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Most analysts feel it was high time that India defuses the existing regional tensions - most prominently the Kashmir issue - and move ahead with its international strategies thus becoming a military power that no one in the world including Pakistan could ignore. Undoubtedly India, till the recent past, has neglected to realise its potential as a power among global powers, that it has been guilty of a strategic 'under-stretch' and it could only transcend its strait-jacket of a regional state by ending its neighbourhood entanglements.

Following the post cold-war developments, new India through its readjusted foreign policies has shown keenness to take the forefront in the international fora. India's new strategies were rewarded by America when Former US President Bill Clinton visited India in 1999 and offered India 'strategic partnership' through membership in the Community of Democracies programme, pointedly ignoring Pakistan where General Musharraf had just ousted the democratically elected government of Nawaz Sharif.

The unexpected support from New Delhi to the Bush Administration's controversial positions on the war on terrorism and the doctrine of pre-emptive strike is reflective of new India that is breaking out of its past and struggling to find a new set of organising principles for its foreign and national security policy.

America's present interest on India was fully reflective from the bilateral talks that was held between visiting US Assistant Secretary of State or South Asia Christina Rocca and Indian Joint Secretary (US, Canada) S. Jaishankar. The talks concentrated on Phase II of the Next Steps in Strategic Partnership (NSSP) with more emphasis on ways and means to further facilitate transfer of sensitive technology in four key areas civil nuclear, civil space, high technology and missile defence. Foreign analysts categorize this development as a move to ''harmonise export control regimes.

'' Following the 9/11 incident, the alienated Pakistan became an important player in the US- led fight against terrorism. Understanding the importance of expressing allegiance to America's 'demand' of support to fight against its enemies, President Pervez Musharaf had to balance the power centre between extremism and the super power. So far he has been successful in continuing this 'tight rope walk' albeit three attempts on his life by extremist elements.

While accepting Pakistan as a crucial ally against Al Qaeda, the Bush administration had made its best attempts in keeping the Indo-Pak front peaceful to achieve success in its anti-terrorist, anti-Al Qaeda mission in Afghanistan. Balancing the interests of the two major powers in the region, it offered significant concessions to India on Kashmir:

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it accepted, together with the European Union, two general elections in Indian-administered Kashmir as fair, and clearly switched off its earlier support to an 'independent' Kashmir. Details of a historic telephone call which timely averted destruction and restored diplomatic ties was revealed by the Secretary of State Colin Powell in an interview published last week. As the potential for a nuclear war between the two sides began to abate last year, Powell said Pakistan President General Pervez Musharraf had called him to find out whether India would respond positively if his Prime Minister made a telephone call to his Indian counterpart. The efforts were fruitful, he maintained. Armitage was fully involved in the shuttle diplomacy in maintaining a peaceful Indo-Pakistan front in the South Asian region.

As far as Afghanistan is concerned, Armitage will be the highest-ranking US diplomat to visit the war-ravaged nation since the October 9 presidential elections that interim leader Hamid Karzai is to celebrate a jubilant victory. The country will remain a battlefield of America notwithstanding the results of forthcoming US presidential polls.

Sri Lanka was a 'pet' land for Armitage and also the peace process itself was an image building exercise for him. He was at considerable ease when dealing with frontliners of the previous regime, especially the likes of Ranil Wickremesinghe, Tyronne Fernando, G.L. Peiris and Milinda Moragoda. Armitage was one of the top campaigners to maintain the LTTE in the list of proscribed terrorist organizations, to the satisfaction of Sri Lanka which made use of this continued proscription to pressurize the Tigers to be serious on peace talks, a top Sri Lankan diplomat disclosed.

Though US wanted Japan to play the key role in the country's peace process through its special envoy Yasushi Akashi, the former was an indispensable player due to many reasons.

However, it became one of the four co-chairs of the forum. Armitage was seen in the forefront of every parley.

The US is an important friend to Sri Lanka, both in economic and military terms. More than 80 per cent of the US $ 2.5 billion trade between the two countries is in Sri Lanka's favour. Almost half of the country's exports find its final destination in the US.

A trade and investment framework agreement (TIFA) was signed between the two countries in July 2002 as a step towards a possible Free Trade Agreement in the near future.

It is no exaggeration to state that the nuclear rich South Asia is becoming the most attractive region to the West, particularly to the US. Therefore, the visit by Armitage is not going to be a mere 'farewell' tour, but a strong reminder that the interest the region will remain irrespective of who wins the crucial poll.